Seasonal outlook update

30 November 2018

The first day of summer for Victoria comes after heavy localised rainfall in some metropolitan Melbourne areas in the past few weeks and a Total Fire Ban declaration in the Mallee and Wimmera weather districts for 1 December, 2018.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC this week issued a November release of the Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2018-19 which maintains the Victorian outlook of normal fire potential for much of the State except for East Gippsland which is above normal.  

At the same time, the Bureau of Metrology also released its 2018-19 Summer Outlook which indicates that much of Australia is likely to see a hotter than normal summer period.

The Bureau’s spring summaries will be released on Monday, 3 December but preliminary figures show its likely to be one of the 10 warmest springs on record for the country as a whole.

According to the BOM, rainfall during spring has been a mixed bag with above-average rainfall through southern Western Australia (apart from the southwest), most of the Northern Territory, northern and western South Australia, small areas in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Victoria and Tasmania are currently on track for one of the 10 driest springs on record respectively.

The Victorian emergency management sector has been focused on preparing for summer with multi-agency briefings and exercising and preparedness activities so we go into the summer season as a strong, collaborative sector, working together for the community.

View the latest outlook (External link).

The Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2018 is used by fire authorities to make strategic decisions on resource planning and prescribed fire management for the upcoming fire season. View the BNHCRC Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook November 2018-19 (External link)