Winter brings low bushfire risk, potential for planned burning

28 May 2021
Map of Australia showing areas of above normal, normal and below normal fire potential.

Victoria can expect close to average rainfall this winter, continuing the trends observed during autumn and contributing to an overall low bushfire risk.

According to the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: June-August 2021 (External link) released yesterday, autumn rainfall was varied, with central and eastern Victoria experiencing wetter conditions than other areas of the state.

These conditions, combined with the already-high levels of underlying vegetation moisture, resulted in significantly reduced levels of bushfire activity during autumn. They also enabled an earlier start to Victoria’s planned burning season.

Planned burning may be able to continue during winter in some drier forest types in the north and west of the state.

The climate outlook for winter suggests average or near-average rainfall is expected across most of Victoria. This may contribute to a reduced bushfire risk next summer.

It is important to remember that fire is a regular occurrence in Victoria, and even when the outlook shows a low risk, we may still experience fire.

The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook is developed quarterly by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, and relevant state fire and land managers.

To stay updated on bushfire incidents and warnings, including planned burns, visit the VicEmergency website (External link).