Victorians to expect a warmer and drier winter ahead

1 June 2023
An image of the map of Australia. Red parts are highlighted in the Northern Territory to indicate above normal fire potential. Both red and blue parts are highlighted in New South Wales. Blue indicates below normal fire potential. The rest of Australia is yellow for normal fire potential.

Parts of Victoria experienced a wetter than normal autumn, but the forecast for winter is drier with warmer conditions than average, according to the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter, released today.

Victoria’s southwest saw above average rainfall in autumn and three consecutive years of La Nina have resulted in wetter soils across the state. However, reduced rainfall and above average temperatures over the next three months could result in drier than average soil by late winter, when El Nino conditions are forecast to develop.

While Victoria is now in the lower-risk period for bushfires, emergency services remain well prepared and will continue to monitor any emerging risks including the potential for an earlier start to bushfire season.

The emergency management sector is continuing its preparedness activities with statewide preparedness briefings and state-level exercising, including community-centred scenario exercises. Incident management personnel are doing all they can to prepare for emerging risks and respond to any emergencies

Acting Emergency Management Commissioner Amanda Leck urged communities to plan ahead.

“It’s important for communities to also understand what their risks are and plan accordingly. Now is a good time to download the VicEmergency app and know who your local emergency broadcaster is. You can also access your local floods guides through the VicEmergency website,” she said.

“Staying safe – no matter what time of year – is a shared responsibility between emergency services and the community, and we all have a role to play.”

The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter is developed by AFAC and supported by the Bureau of Meteorology along with State and Territory fire and land managers.

Keep up to date with the Fire Danger Ratings and access local flood guides on the VicEmergency App (External link) and VicEmergency website (External link).

To read the full Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter 2023, visit the AFAC website (External link).